...and it's not because of JaVale McGee. (Okay, maybe JaVale McGee has a little to do with it).
我这样说的理由不是因为JaVale McGee.（好吧，可能JaVale McGee对此也有一定的帮助）
For obvious reasons, this season will be the test of my "Brendan Haywood is among the most underrated players in basketball" theory (before Doc jumps down my throat, I'll admit that it's not exclusively my theory...I had to be convinced of it by others). Even in past years, when Brendan was supposidely struggling enough with his effort level for coach Eddie Jordan to bench him, he was an unbelievably important part of our team. He wasn't a great rebounder or a particularly fluid scorer, but he was an outstanding individual and team defender and a space-eater that made things easier for our perimeter-oriented stars. Etan Thomas' effort level may have been higher, but no amount of effort was ever going to make him as important to the team's success as Haywood.
因为一些众所周知的原因，这个赛季将是测试我的“Brendan Haywood是篮球领域中最被低估的球员之一”理论的好机会（在Doc跳出来抽我之前, 我首先要承认这不是我独占的理论，我只是十分赞同这个理论）。即使在过去的几年中，when Brendan was supposidely struggling enough with his effort level for coach Eddie Jordan to bench him, 他是一个不可思议的重要的球队组成部分。他不是一个伟大的篮板手，也不是一个持续的得分手，但是他是一个杰出的个人和团队防守者，一个内线悍将，他让我们的外线球星更加轻松。Etan Thomas的effort level可能更高，但是这没有让他成为像Haywood那样让球队成功的人。
I've referred a lot to Haywood's on/off court numbers in the past without actually providing them. Here's what Haywood has meant to the Wizards' defense in each of our playoff years. DE stands for defensive efficiency (points allowed/100 possessions, for you newbies).
我以前已经提到了很多Haywood在场和不在场的数据对比，但是没有一直没有吧这些数据好好整理出来。以下是在最近几个奇才进入季后赛的赛季中，Haywood对奇才的防守的贡献对比。DE代表防守效率（啥，你不知道什么叫防守效率，好吧，就是对手平均100次进攻所得的分数）
Year DE on DE off Difference
2004/05 103.1 113.1 9.9
2005/06 106.5 110.6 4.1
2006/07 108.1 114.7 6.6
2007/08 109.7 111.2 1.5
The pattern is actually pretty simple. With Haywood on the court, we've been about a league-average defensive team. With him off the court, we're basically at the very bottom. Assuming, hypothetically, that Haywood played every minute of every game at that same level, our defensive rating would have been good enough for the following respective rankings: 13th, T13th, 15th and 25th. Without him? 30th, 26th, 30th and T27. When I speak of Haywood's incredible on/off ratings, this is what I'm talking about.
这个数据表格浅显易懂。Haywood在场上的情况下，我们的防守达到联盟的平均水平。当他下场的时候，奇才的防守水准基本上是联盟倒数。假设，只是假设而已，Haywood以以上的防守水准在每场比赛都打满48分钟，我们这几年的防守排名将相应达到以下的相应水准：13th，13th，15th，25th，如果他不在场? 那排名相应为：30th，26th，30th，27th。这就是我所说的Haywood在场与不在场的惊人对比。
Of course, it's not all about stats, but they prove the subjective conclusion. I say that Haywood, due mostly to his size and smarts and not necessarily his effort, is an incredibly underrated defender, particularly on a team with such awful perimeter defenders. The numbers support that. Etan Thomas works hard, but he's a poor helpside defender and gives up too much size in individual defense. He can try all he wants, but he'll never be the defender Haywood is.
当然，数据并不能说明全部，但是数据证明了我的观点。我认为Haywood是一个被低估的防守者，他在防守端有着不可思议的表现，而且这是因为他的体格和机智，而不仅仅是他的努力。上面的数据证明了这个结论。Etan Thomas是个十分努力的人，但是他在协防上做的很失败，而且在一对一防守中也不够强硬。他可以努力提高自己的防守，但是他永远也不会达到Haywood的高度。
Ah, but as you can probably see, there's an outlier here. Shockingly, it's last season. For all the talk about Haywood's improvement, he actually affected the defense far less than in past years. His improvement mostly came on the offensive end, where he became a zillion times more efficient while cutting his turnovers. Defensively, however, one can make a legitimate argument that he actually got worse. As you can see, when Haywood was in the game, the Wizards actually defended worse than their season defensive efficiency rating.
对了，你可能已经发现数据中有一个很令人震惊的特例，发生在上个赛季。虽然大家都认为Haywood进步了，但是他真正对球队防守的贡献与过去的几年相比却大大的下跌。实际上，他的进步大多在进攻端，他的进攻效率有了惊人的增长同时还减少了失误。然而在防守上，你可以说他是变糟糕了。从数据上可以看出，当Haywood在场的时候，奇才的防守实际比他们的赛季平均防守效率还要低。
I won't argue that Haywood has dropped off defensively, but I will argue that last year may be the beginning of a trend. With Randy Ayers coming in, there was much more of an emphasis on team defense than in the past. This, of course, meant that we protected the paint like crazy, but it also meant that "blame" was spread around more. This certainly hurt Haywood's impact, and in many ways, it may have been problematic because Haywood is a solid presence that can deter penetration on his own. It did, however, make things a little easier for everybody else. Instead of having to remember all these odd zone traps, which can be difficult even for strong defenders, the rest of the Wizards had a true philosophy that their defensive-neglicent minds could actually understand. Protect the paint, at all costs.
我不想在他防守效率上的下降做任何争论，但是我认为去年可能是一种趋势的开端。随着Randy Ayers的到来，奇才发生了改变，过去不被重视的团队防守越来越成为球队的重心所在。这意味球队开始严密保护油漆区，同时这也意味着更多的人要承担防守的责任。but it also meant that "blame" was spread around more. 这样的策略必然降低了Haywood在防守方面的影响，Haywood做为一个防突破的好手，在重兵把守的油漆区反而难以发挥，因此这样的策略让人心存疑虑。但是它有一个好处，那就是让其他人的任务变得简单。现在队里那些对防守没有什么概念的球员可以不用再去记忆那些奇怪的防守陷阱区是什么，要知道即使对于一个强悍的防守者来说也不是一件容易的事情。他们只要记住一条真理，那就是保护油漆区，不计任何代价。
Why does this matter? Because unlike in past years, where the Wizards' defense was so dependent on Haywood, the club doesn't actually have to change much of their philosophy. They will still cut off the lane because, for the first time last year, the entire team was doing that instead of Haywood exclusively. All the drills the team ran during training camp to close out on shooters are still going to make a difference, not only because that's basic defense, but also because they're going to do so from the same areas they did last season. Essentially, Ayers actually created a scheme, even if one could argue that it was the wrong one because of Haywood's ability to deter penetration on his own. Now that Haywood is out, that "protect the paint" scheme actually makes sense, and with a year of learning it under their belts, the rest of the club should know better what to do within it.
为什么这对Haywood有影响？因为在过去的几年中，奇才十分依赖Haywood的防守，而去年开始情况却有所不同。当然奇才的防守方式并没有发生天翻地覆的变化，在防守中尽力切断对手的传球路线仍然是防守的方针之一，但是以前只有Haywood这样做，而上个赛季是头一回全队都执行了这个策略。在训练营中球员对投篮者进行逼迫的训练也将继续使球队变得不同，不仅仅是因为这是基础的防守，还因为他们是在过去一个赛季防守的基础。实际上，虽然有人对Ayers防守策略中对Haywood防突破能力的忽视颇有怨言，但现在Haywood受伤缺席，这种保护油漆区的战略有了意义，通过一年实打实的学习，剩下的球员知道怎样才能做得更好。
Of course, another key will be that there are better backup options. If Etan Thomas returns healthy, he can make up a lot of Haywood's offensive improvement. He can score pretty efficiently and grab a decent number of offensive boards, though he needs to be less turnover-prone and a better free throw shooter to mimic Haywood. Andray Blatche's emergence also helps; he proved last year that he can play center, and anything from McGee and Oleksiy Pecherov will be better than past seasons. But the real reason we might be better-equipped to handle Haywood's loss is because of a change in philosophy.
当然，另一个关键点是有比往年更好的后备球员。如果Etan Thomas健康的回归，他可以弥补很多Haywood在进攻上的进步。他能够做到有效的得分，交出一份漂亮的进攻数据，虽然他需要更少的易于失误和更好的罚球来达到Haywood的程度。Andray Blatch也能为球队提供帮助，他上个赛季证明了他可以打中锋， 还有McGee和Oleksiy Pecherov加入使得内线情况比前几个赛季要好得多。但是但是我们准备好处理Haywood的缺阵的真正的原因是防守策略上的变化。
That's not to say the loss stings. On a team that's likely to play slower with Gilbert Arenas injured, Haywood was an underrated part of the half-court offense, bringing skills no one player can replace. His loss also means we're going to have to double-team the post even more, opening up shooters on the weakside. But at the very least, we have more tools to stop the bleeding than we did in 2006/07.
并不是说我们因此就可以在没有Haywood的日子里毫无痛楚。在一个因为Gilbert Arenas的伤病而降速的球队里，Haywood是一个在半场防守中被低估的部分，他带来的技巧不是一个球员可以代替的。他的缺席还意味着我们不得不更多的包夹内线，导致外线弱侧的射手无人看管。但是至少在止血上，我们比2006/07赛季有了更多的工具。
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